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The Challenges of Vietnam as it Joins the Globalized World
Good
evening. It’s great to be back at UCSD. For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Lân. Some of you may know
me as Ethan, but for those of you meeting me for the first time, let’s stick with Lân. I’d like to thank VSA,
especially Thụy Khanh for inviting me to be a part of this event. (It seems that as the years pass, the girls at UCSD
get cuter and cuter.)
Tonight’s theme is “The Hidden Truth behind Vietnam ’s Economy.”
I did not pick that title, but I certainly enjoy the dramatic effect it has. And while I don’t claim to have some sort
of truth to present to you tonight, I do hope to provide you all with a different perspective that you might not typically
get in Western or even Vietnamese media.
So why Vietnam ’s economy? Why should it be of concern for
us here in the United States ? The textbook answer is that economics equals money. Vietnam is an emerging market – an
“Asian Tiger” if you will. Given that a lot of you here can speak Vietnamese, Vietnam may provide an opportunity
to make a quick buck.
A more specific answer, one that I hope is a stronger motivation for most of you here
tonight is that you are Vietnamese. Those of you who came to the US within the past 10 years probably still have friends and
family there. Those of you who were born here or whose families were boat people hail from a community of political refugees.
Your parents risked their lives in search of freedom, and as a whole, our Vietnamese-American community is deeply concerned
with the lack of political liberties in Vietnam today. Also, it is widely believed that economic reform will bring political
reform. That once people are able to feed and clothe themselves, once they are able to take care of the basic needs of livelihood,
they will begin to tend to higher needs and demand political reform. (Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs). The Communist Party
will implode on itself and Vietnam will transform into a modern, democratic and free country. Or at least that’s how
it goes in theory. What I hope to do is examine this hypothesis up against the current reality in Vietnam today to see if
it holds up, and if it doesn’t, to help us understand why.
Vietnam in history
But first
some history. At the start of the 20th century, Vietnam , as colonized by the French, was known as the “ Pearl of the
Orient.” Although Vietnam was imperialized, life under the French Rule was generally easy going. The standard of living
for the Vietnamese people under the French was very high, if not the highest in Southeast Asia . But most certainly, Vietnam
was more modern at the time than neighboring countries such as Korea , Thailand , Singapore …
Of course,
despite taking on the task of “civilizing Vietnam ”, the Vietnamese people were still treated as second class
citizens on their own homeland. And so there were those who sought for Vietnamese independence free of French rule. Most famous
among these revolutionaries are Phan Chu Trinh, who believed that the Vietnamese people could appeal to the French nation
of “Liberté, égalité, fraternité” and shame the French into giving Vietnam independence; Phan Bội Châu who
sought to overthrow the French by force and rebuild Vietnam from the experience of Vietnamese students that he had sent abroad
to France, Japan, America, etc to learn about the west and their ways. And of course there was Nguyễn Tất Thành,
aka Nguyễn Ái Quốc, but most famously known as Hồ Chí Minh. “Uncle Ho” of course believed in
not making Vietnam a free, independent state, but rather hoped to join it into a utopian, classless, communist world order.
I’m
going to have to gloss over a lot of details here, but needless to say, Hồ Chí Minh dragged the Vietnamese people into
an unnecessary and tragic war against themselves. This protracted civil war - what the Americans call the Vietnam War and
what the people in Vietnam call the American War - was actually a proxy war between the forces of capitalism and communism,
with the Vietnamese people used as pawns to be sacrificed in a chess game between the Soviet Union and the United States .
Ultimately the Northern forces won – not because of a strong allegiance to Communist ideology, but because
they believed they were fighting to oust the so-called US imperialists, to unite the country and free their countrymen. The
South lost because the population remained mostly unconcerned, too busy enjoying the modern society that the Americans had
built for them, and too trusting of these allies who had promised to never abandon Vietnam , to have a strategy to go it alone
against the North. And so, when the war proved unpopular at home, the Americans pulled out and the South began to crumble.
You
can ask your parents for a firsthand account of the events following April 30th, 1975 when Saigon fell, but I will simply
say that upon entering Saigon, the northern forces did not find a backwards society or oppressed people as they had been told
they would, but instead they found a society more modern than anything they had ever seen. There are stories of communists
cadre members washing their faces in toilets because the north did not have indoor plumbing. I’ve been told that when
asked by a Southerner, “Ngoài bắc các anh có TV không?” (Are there televisions in the north?) One communist
answered, “TV hả? Có chứ, ở ngoài Bắc TV chạy đầy đường!”
(Of course! In the north TVs run rampant in the streets!)
Instead of realizing their mistakes and learning
from the South to modernize the North, the victims held grudges and dismantled the modern society that the Americans had left
behind. People were sent to reeducation camps and punished for living a decent life. Because of time constraints, I’ll
spare you the details, but for nearly two decades after the Communist victory in Vietnam , the Cold War waged on and Vietnam
was a country left behind in time, as a result of nearly all the West holding embargos against it. For the rest of the Cold
War, Vietnam and its people would suffer greatly for the decisions of the Communist Party.
Globalization and
the New World Order
Flash forward to the early 1990s when the Soviet Union falls apart. The Cold War ends and
America is the only remaining superpower in the world. Nations are no longer divided by ideology.
Almost immediately,
the call for nations to join a global class utopia is replaced by a call for nations to join a united, utopian world economy
where the problems facing third world countries will be solved through trade with the west.
Whereas during
the Cold War, politics was placed above all else, in this new world order, politics took a back seat to economics, and old
enemies overcame grudges through trade and investment.
This is the world in which we live in today.
In
this globalized economy, transactions are instantaneous, purchases are made on credit, and wealthy nations move on to profiting
from services and outsource manufacturing jobs to poorer countries. For a person living in a poor country, it is easy to buy
into the promise that globalization will bring jobs and opportunity to your country, that the west wants to modernize your
country, but the reality is that the people of these poor nations are mistaking the profits of foreign companies for something
that directly benefits them. This is not the case.
Nations are now strongly tied together and are interdependent
on one another as they go through a cycle of COOPERATION – COMPETITION – OPPOSITION – COOPERATION.
For
developing nations especially, it is important to know what phase your country’s relationship is in with regards to
the West.
Vietnam in the Globalized World
A. The Communist Government
In 1995,
President Bill Clinton lifted trade embargos on Vietnam . This paved the way for the rest of the West – those countries
aligned with the US during the Cold War – to resume economic relations with Vietnam . Initially, many foreign companies
tried to jump into Vietnam , but due to its corrupt government, many of these pioneers were burned. The stories are out there,
of entrepreneurs going back to Vietnam , starting up a successful business, and then being arrested on some bogus charge and
deported, leaving the government to acquire ownership over whatever business the entrepreneurs had successfully established.
Over the span of the past 10 years however, the Vietnamese government has been less obvious in its corrupt
ways, allowing foreign investors more leeway. Nobody can deny that Vietnam has changed dramatically.
Whereas
previously the Vietnamese government was weary that the US secretly still longed to overthrow them, 10 years of normal trade
relations has assuaged their fears and they have realized that US interests in Vietnam are purely economical. As such, the
Vietnamese government has become willing to play ball with the West, allowing more foreign investment and under the table
deals in order increase their personal coffers. If by some chance the Vietnamese people benefit from this as a byproduct,
then so be it.
That Vietnam has made huge leaps towards modernity is apparent to anyone who has visited the
big cities in the past few years. There is practically nothing you cannot buy there.
B. The Vietnamese people
After 1975, the Vietnamese people endured countless hardship after hardship. For them, life after the US lifted
its trade embargo against Vietnam is the best time that any of them have ever known. Like beggars who are given mere scraps,
they dare not demand more, but are forever hopeful that more is on the horizon. The Vietnamese people living in Vietnam today
are optimistic for a brighter future and they believe as a matter of faith that their lives will get better. Standing in the
darkness, they are looking out into the blinding light of the modern world and everything to them is new and wonderful.
Not
knowing any better, they confuse quality of possessions with quality of life and seek to ape western consumerism. As a result
you get ridiculous situations where people in rural areas of Vietnam save up to buy mobile phones rather than tools to plow
their fields. Because it feels good. And because they can.
The Vietnamese youth listens to Chinese music,
watches Korean dramas, drive Japanese motorbikes, and sport American clothing. Everything foreign is exciting while there
is no pride in domestic enterprises.
The youth seeks to study abroad so that they may find a way to remain
overseas. Indeed, some people even sell themselves for the chance to go abroad. Those who are unable to go abroad seek to
find jobs in foreign companies in hopes of being sent overseas to work.
Generally, the Vietnamese people today
are willing to do whatever it takes to attract foreign investment as foreign companies – in order to better exploit
Vietnam – will build for it an infrastructure and provide changes that are beneficial in the immediate short run. Unfortunately,
they do not see that they themselves are lagging behind these foreign companies on every front and lack to the means to exploit
Vietnam’s natural resources for national gain – and by the time that they are in a position to put Vietnam’s
resources to use for Vietnam, there may not be anything left for the Vietnamese people to benefit from.
Vietnam
and the WTO
In the past year, Vietnam has made many moves that have been applauded by the West. It hosted the
APEC summit in November, was elected as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for the 2008-2009 term, was removed
from the US Countries of Particular Concern (CPC) list reserved for nations who do not allow religious freedom, was granted
Permanent Normal Trading status with the US, established relations with the Vatican, and most notably gained entry into the
WTO.
Foreign observers have applauded Vietnam ’s recent reforms and have touted Vietnam as the next “Asian
Economic Tiger.” A Google news search for Vietnam will yield headlines of the past week such as “Investment boom
in Vietnam” ; “Cambodia expects trade with Vietnam to grow by 27%” ; “More Japanese businesses to
invest in Vietnam”; “Vietnam’s Economy to Surpass Thailand, Indonesia by 2020” etc…
Clearly
the buzz around Vietnam is strong. But the numbers only tell half the truth. While indeed Vietnam ’s economy is booming,
the great majority of this economic boon is sparked by foreign investment. Meaning that the Vietnamese people have no ownership
over any of it.
The average Vietnamese citizen driving around Saigon feels that his life is better today than
it was before because he sees tall skyscraper apartment homes being built downtown. This excites him. But he forgets that
he can’t afford to live there.
At the same time, many people have praised Vietnam for gaining entry into
the WTO, thinking that membership will somehow guarantee economic prosperity and end the problems of poverty and underdeveloped
infrastructure. This is the sales pitch of the proponents of globalization, but in truth the WTO is merely a set of rules
that member nations must abide by in opening up their markets to other member states. It provides an “equal playing
field” so to speak, but leaves member nations to make the best of it themselves. There are no guarantees of success.
Joining the WTO will open Vietnam ’s market to foreign industries, and in turn open the foreign markets
to Vietnam ’s industries. But how can Vietnam compete when nearly everything it produces can me manufactured cheaper
and better by western nations with huge machines and technology? How can Vietnam compete when its rice and coffee are not
as refined as that of other nations, when its fish are looked down upon due to chemicals that are inject into the fish, and
when its handicrafts are a niche market supported only by art collectors and overseas Vietnamese communities?
A.
A case study
In joining the WTO, the Vietnamese government has had to play ball with the member nations, reforming
certain aspects of national policy and proving itself worthy to be a member of this exclusive club. Chief among the nations
that Vietnam had to appease was the United States . During then Prime Minister Phan Văn Khải’s visit to the
US in summer of 2005, Vietnam signed deals with a number of American corporations such as Microsoft, New York Life Insurance,
Nike, and Boeing.
These contracts are valued in the billions. But one has to ask – given the state of
Vietnam today, why do the Vietnamese people need life insurance? Why do they need athletic shoes and golf clubs? With the
majority of the country still in rural backwaters, why do they need Microsoft? And why do they need Boeing planes?
Specifically
in the case of Boeing, Phan Văn Khải bought 4 Boeing planes during his trip in June of 2005. This past August,
Vietnam ’s new Prime Minister Nguyễn Tấn Dũng authorized the purchase of 10 more Boeing Dreamliner
787s and 5 smaller ATR-72 places from Italy . This is on top of the 10 Airbus A321s that Vietnam purchased in December of
2004. Clearly, Vietnam is trying to expand the state run Vietnam Airlines.
Many will look at this and call
it progress. But more critical minds will call it a waste. If you’ve ever flown on Vietnam Airlines, you will probably
recall that your flight was not full. Or if my numbers are wrong – it’s been some years since I’ve flown
Vietnam Airlines – then I’m willing to bet that the passengers of that flight consisted merely of overseas Vietnamese,
foreign tourists/businessmen, or Party members. And of course, there will be the occasional Vietnamese citizen who somehow
has managed to afford the airfare.
Because with an estimated GDP of around $3,000 per capita annually, how
many Vietnamese people can actually spare the money to fly around the country on vacation or business? How will the Vietnamese
people pay off a $150 million dollar airplane let alone 10 of them? And yet, it will be the Vietnamese people who will have
to bear the cost of such outrageous and frivolous purchases by the Vietnamese government, made only to appease the West.
The
idea that Vietnam might be expanding its fleets in order to compete in the world market is absurd, since the well established
airlines such as United, American, etc are themselves fighting to turn a profit given current fuel prices and a decline in
flying post 9/11.
B. WTO and Political reform in Vietnam
There are those who will have you believe
that despite these hang ups, in the larger scheme of things, Vietnam ’s entry into WTO will force Vietnam to undergo
market reforms that will unintentionally lead to political reforms. As a middle class emerges, it will fight the Vietnamese
government for its civil liberties and bring about a democratic and free society.
This may be true to a certain
extent. But to believe in this as a means of bringing about political change in Vietnam also reduces the solution for Vietnam
’s political problems to simply giving into a culture of consumerism. The Vietnamese people can buy their way out of
oppression by buying Nike shoes. This sounds awfully convenient for the Western countries trying to turn a profit in Vietnam
.
More seriously though, the central tenant of this notion of “economic reform bringing about political
reform” rests on the rise of an INDEPENDENT middle class who has worked hard for their money and aims to protect their
wealth from arbitrary state control. It also requires the existence of a free press.
Vietnam today does not
have a free press. And the emerging middle class is not independent but rather completely dependent on the government to continue
attracting the foreign investment that creates the wealth for this new middle class. So in the case of Vietnam , because of
entrenched corruption and a lack of private enterprise, the rising middle class is actually increasingly attached to the government,
despite its flaws.
In the same way foreign companies that are ahead in Vietnam , who have invested countless
time and money in under-the-table payoffs and bribes to receive special privileges with the Vietnamese government, do not
want wide-sweeping political reform because they have already secured for themselves a desirable relationship with this corrupt
government. A more transparent government would mean that they would have to start over on equal footing with all other corporations,
and the money they have invested under-the-table would be wasted.
On the part of the Vietnamese Communist Party,
their only concern now is prolonging their privileged lifestyle for the duration of their lives and if possible, to be able
to pass on that lifestyle for their children. They have implicitly acknowledged the failure of communism by turning down the
path of “red capitalism” where the market is controlled by the government. Realizing that the west only wants
to profit from business with Vietnam and no longer cares about political differences, the party is more willing to make an
effort towards reform – at least on the surface – to please its Western patrons.
Longtime party
members have already shifted their savings overseas and some have bought up real-estate right in Little Saigon and are ready
to leave at a moment’s notice. They are ready to pass on leadership of the nation to their chosen successors through
means that will please the West.
This May, Vietnam will hold parliamentary elections. Those who follow Vietnamese
current events will know that in the past two years or so, numerous Vietnamese political parties have formed with the stated
intent of democratizing Vietnam . Their hope, it is assumed, is to participate in these elections and win a few seats in parliament.
With these seats, it is hoped that they will use their authority to help change Vietnam .
I do not believe
that the Communists are so stupid that they cannot see this plan to oust them. And I refuse to believe that anyone who has
power will put themselves in a position where they may lose it. I predict that in these upcoming elections, if they are in
fact open elections, the Communist party will somehow miraculously maintain at least 51% of parliament. They will remain in
control of the government, but what happens is that any people who continue to decry Vietnam as an undemocratic country will
have their calls fall on deaf ears. The United States and the world will point to the multi-party parliament and call on the
critics to give the fledgling democracy time. However, with time, the status quo will remain the same.
Conclusion
In
regards to Vietnam’s relationship with the United States and by extension the West, Vietnamese political dissident Hà
Sĩ Phu once compared the Vietnamese people to a flock of ducks who have long been trapped in their cages. One day, a
magical hand from the sky reaches in and frees the duck from captivity. Able to spread its wings for the first time in a long
while, the duck is overjoyed and excited for what it expects to see beyond the confines of its cage. But what the duck does
not realize is that the hand reaching in is not setting the duck free, but rather taking it to the chopping block.
This
is essentially the reality facing Vietnam today. If the Vietnamese people are not careful, they risk being brought to the
chopping block by foreign powers.
In closing, I’d like to leave you with this thought:
Thay
đổi là tất yếu
Thụ động là tất bại
Đấu tranh
là tất thắng
(Time brings inevitable change
Passivity brings inevitable failure
Struggle
brings inevitable victory)
A. Time brings inevitable change
Over 30 years after the war, Vietnam
has invited the US back to modernize Vietnam much in the same way it was already doing in South Vietnam some 30 years ago.
Sky scrappers are being erected, roads paved, five star hotels built… For a Vietnamese person who has never known any
better, it is an exciting time to be alive. Change is unavoidable with time, but change in and of itself is not necessarily
a good thing.
B. Passivity brings inevitable failure
Profits for foreign corporations investing
in Vietnam should not be confused with profits for the Vietnamese people themselves. The interests of the companies and the
Vietnamese people are not the same, and the Vietnamese people should do well to understand this. Given the conditions that
they have lived in for the past few decades, it is understandable that the Vietnamese people are ecstatic about the changes
that their country is undergoing. So they are lulled into a sense of complacency and hope that more foreign investment will
bring about more renovation to their country. But as they drive around in the shadows of these skyscraping luxury hotels,
they forget that they cannot actually afford to stay a night there. As they produce athletic shoes or other articles of clothing,
they forget that their wages do not allow them to afford the item that they are making. And as they drive along the freeways
that are being built, they will not realize that these roads are not meant for them, but actually meant for foreign corporations
to better transport and exploit the natural resources of their country. Change can be good, but is not always good, and if
the Vietnamese people chose to sit idly by and wait for other nations to bring them into modernity, they will not be able
to shape the future of Vietnam .
Unfortunately as it stands now, the Vietnamese people do not have the means
of production or ownership over this change. They are completely dependent upon foreign investment and the corrupt government
that is attracting it.
At this rate, one day Vietnam will have all the makings of a modern nation, but the
Vietnamese people will be reduced to third class citizens living on their own homeland, working in factories to prop up the
economies of western nations.
C. Struggle brings inevitable victory
But luckily for the Vietnamese
people, struggle brings inevitable victory. As history has demonstrated time and time again, small groups of committed people
who are aware of the reality facing their country and who are concerned for the long-term development of that country can
bring about revolutionary changes. The answer for Vietnam lies not in resisting the forces of globalization, but realizing
its pitfalls and somehow playing the game to Vietnam ’s advantage rather than to that of foreign powers. Because I believe,
and I hope that you will agree, that the Vietnamese people deserve to have ownership over their economic resources and the
political freedom to be masters of their own destiny, to be able to stand tall among other nations and to find its own unique
path to modernity that honors its heritage while preserving its inherent dignity.
Should one of you one day
find yourselves working towards this goal, I’ll see you along the way.
Thank you.
Nguyễn
Hoàng Lân
February 28, 2007
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